Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 16 at the 81

Minnesota Vikings 0 – Detroit Lions 0

(13:32) 17-R.Wright punts 48 yards to DET 33, Center-42-A.DePaola. 11-K.Raymond to DET 37 for 4 yards (40-S.Takitaki; 32-T.Chandler).

The Three Options

GO -2.62 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +2.29 EP
70% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 81, worth -4.69 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model