Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 14 at the 69

Los Angeles Chargers 0 – Houston Texans 7

(11:28) 16-J.Scott punts 41 yards to HOU 28, Center-47-J.Harris, downed by LAC-89-W.Dissly.

The Three Options

GO -1.84 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.71 EP
70% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 69, worth -3.77 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model