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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Chicago Bears 4th & 3 at the 64

Chicago Bears 7 – San Francisco 49ers 7

What Actually Happened

(10:07) 19-T.Taylor punts 64 yards to end zone, Center-46-S.Daly, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.70 EP
Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +1.67 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 64, worth -3.88 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -1.16 EP
What Happened
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 22, worth -1.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.46 EP