Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 17 at the 80

Carolina Panthers 10 – Seattle Seahawks 20

(3:47) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short middle to 4-T.McMillan to CAR 25 for 5 yards (20-J.Love).

The Three Options

GO -2.65 EP

What Happened

27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +1.28 EP
73% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 80, worth -4.10 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +1.29 EP