Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 10 at the 60

Indianapolis Colts 10 – Jacksonville Jaguars 7

What Actually Happened

(3:58) 8-R.Sanchez punts 48 yards to JAX 12, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 11-P.Washington pushed ob at JAX 17 for 5 yards (81-M.Alie-Cox). PENALTY on IND-20-N.Cross, Face Mask, 15 yards, enforced at JAX 17.

The Three Options

GO -1.20 EP

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.66 EP
67% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 60, worth -3.11 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model