Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 10 at the 71

Buffalo Bills 6 – Philadelphia Eagles 13

What Actually Happened

(1:51) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 14-T.Shavers to BUF 33 for 4 yards. Lateral to 26-Ty.Johnson pushed ob at PHI 46 for 21 yards (39-M.Epps).

The Three Options

GO -1.44 EP

What Happened

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +1.34 EP
64% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 71, worth -3.01 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.49 EP