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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 3 at the 40

Arizona Cardinals 7 – Cincinnati Bengals 37

What Actually Happened

(2:54) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short right to 14-M.Wilson to CIN 25 for 15 yards (38-D.Ivey).

The Three Options

GO +0.80 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +2.69 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 40, worth -1.34 EP
KICK +0.21 EP
  • 55% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.92 EP
  • 45% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 49, worth -1.88 EP
PUNT -0.34 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model