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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 10 at the 80

Pittsburgh Steelers 6 – Cleveland Browns 10

What Actually Happened

(2:02) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass incomplete short middle to 13-S.Miller (93-S.Harris).

The Three Options

GO -1.86 EP
What Happened
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.32 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 80, worth -3.65 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

PUNT -1.49 EP
Model's Pick
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 37, worth -1.49 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.37 EP