4TH&DATA
EN ES
← Home
PIT Away

Pittsburgh Steelers

HC Mike Tomlin
@
CLE Home

Cleveland Browns

HC Kevin Stefanski
Sunday 2025-12-28 · 13:00 FirstEnergy Stadium, Cleveland US 🌧 Rain Spread -4.5 O/U 35.5

Win Probability

PIT
64.1%
CLE
35.9%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • CLE offense: -0.240 EPA/play over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
  • Shedeur Sanders (CLE): -0.242 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • CLE defense: -0.082 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (8th in the league)
  • Aaron Rodgers (PIT): +0.079 EPA/dropback in prior starts

Predicted Final Score

PIT 23
–
CLE 17
Projected margin: PIT by 6 Projected total: 40

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 17

PIT

T.J. Watt LB Out Lung
James Pierre CB Out Calf
Brandin Echols CB Out Groin
Calvin Austin III WR Out Hamstring
Isaac Seumalo G Questionable Triceps
Jalen Ramsey CB Questionable Illness

CLE

David Njoku TE Out Knee
Winston Reid LB Out Back
Wyatt Teller G Questionable Calf
Sam Kamara DT Questionable Elbow
Myles Harden CB Questionable Shoulder
Dylan Sampson RB Questionable Hand
Harold Fannin Jr. TE Questionable Groin
Dillon Gabriel QB Questionable Shoulder

Pulled fresh for 2025 week 17 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

PIT 6
–
CLE 13

Prediction missed by 13 pts on margin, 21 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 10:52 FG CLE (10:52) 25-A.Szmyt 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez. PIT 0 – CLE 3
  • Q1 05:18 TD CLE (5:18) (Shotgun) 12-S.Sanders pass deep right to 44-H.Fannin for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE-44-H.Fannin was injured during the play. PIT 0 – CLE 9
  • Q2 14:58 FG PIT (14:58) 9-C.Boswell 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-3-C.Waitman. PIT 3 – CLE 10
  • Q2 00:03 FG PIT (:03) 9-C.Boswell 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-3-C.Waitman. PIT 6 – CLE 10
  • Q4 01:44 FG CLE (1:44) 25-A.Szmyt 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez. PIT 6 – CLE 13

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 CLE 4th & 7 at the 32
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 72%

    (10:52) 25-A.Szmyt 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.

  • Q1 PIT 4th & 2 at the 66
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.58 EP
    p(convert) 61%

    (8:40) 3-C.Waitman punts 52 yards to CLE 14, Center-46-C.Kuntz, fair catch by 84-G.Larvadain.

  • Q2 PIT 4th & 13 at the 25
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 85%

    (14:58) 9-C.Boswell 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-3-C.Waitman.

  • Q2 CLE 4th & 6 at the 33
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 70%

    (10:18) (Shotgun) 12-S.Sanders pass incomplete short left to 87-S.Cannella.

  • Q2 PIT 4th & 6 at the 47
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.35 EP
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 32%

    (8:38) 3-C.Waitman punts 31 yards to CLE 16, Center-46-C.Kuntz, downed by PIT-40-J.Peppers.

  • Q2 PIT 4th & 1 at the 22
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 89%

    (2:50) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass incomplete deep left to 13-S.Miller.

  • Q2 CLE 4th & 2 at the 70
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.46 EP
    p(convert) 58%

    (2:00) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 57 yards to PIT 13, Center-50-R.Sunahara. 13-S.Miller pushed ob at PIT 22 for 9 yards (31-D.McMillon).

  • Q2 PIT 4th & 4 at the 22
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 89%

    (:03) 9-C.Boswell 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-3-C.Waitman.

  • Q3 PIT 4th & 6 at the 57
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (12:02) 3-C.Waitman punts 43 yards to CLE 14, Center-46-C.Kuntz, fair catch by 84-G.Larvadain.

  • Q3 CLE 4th & 13 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (6:08) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 46 yards to PIT 22, Center-50-R.Sunahara, out of bounds.

  • Q4 PIT 4th & 19 at the 36
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 22% p(FG) 62%

    (12:59) 9-C.Boswell 54 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-3-C.Waitman.

  • Q4 PIT 4th & 5 at the 46
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.36 EP
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 35%

    (9:51) 3-C.Waitman punts 34 yards to CLE 12, Center-46-C.Kuntz, fair catch by 84-G.Larvadain.

  • Q4 CLE 4th & 4 at the 82
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (7:15) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 64 yards to PIT 18, Center-50-R.Sunahara. 13-S.Miller ran ob at PIT 43 for 25 yards (86-B.Whiteheart).

  • Q4 PIT 4th & 6 at the 53
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 20%

    (5:01) 3-C.Waitman punts 43 yards to CLE 10, Center-46-C.Kuntz, fair catch by 84-G.Larvadain.

  • Q4 CLE 4th & 1 at the 81 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.75 EP
    p(convert) 70%

    (2:24) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 61 yards to PIT 20, Center-50-R.Sunahara, fair catch by 13-S.Miller.

  • Q4 PIT 4th & 10 at the 80 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.37 EP
    p(convert) 36%

    (2:02) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass incomplete short middle to 13-S.Miller (93-S.Harris).

  • Q4 CLE 4th & 5 at the 15 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 95%

    (1:44) 25-A.Szmyt 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.

  • Q4 PIT 4th & 7 at the 7 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.51 EP
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 98%

    (:21) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass incomplete short right to 11-M.Valdes-Scantling (21-D.Ward).