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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q2
Cleveland Browns
4th & 6 at the 33
Cleveland Browns 10 – Pittsburgh Steelers 3
What Actually Happened
(10:18) (Shotgun) 12-S.Sanders pass incomplete short left to 87-S.Cannella.
The Three Options
GO
+0.70 EP
What Happened
-
35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +4.38 EP
- 65% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 33, worth -1.28 EP
KICK
+0.75 EP
Model's Pick
- 70% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.88 EP
- 30% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 43, worth -1.85 EP
PUNT
+0.01 EP
- Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
