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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 4 at the 22

Pittsburgh Steelers 3 – Cleveland Browns 10

What Actually Happened

(:03) 9-C.Boswell 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-3-C.Waitman.

The Three Options

GO +1.16 EP
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +2.66 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 22, worth +0.00 EP
KICK +2.62 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 89% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.96 EP
  • 11% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 32, worth -0.06 EP
PUNT +0.02 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth +0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model