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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 5 at the 46

Pittsburgh Steelers 6 – Cleveland Browns 10

What Actually Happened

(9:51) 3-C.Waitman punts 34 yards to CLE 12, Center-46-C.Kuntz, fair catch by 84-G.Larvadain.

The Three Options

GO -0.16 EP
Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +2.98 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 46, worth -2.53 EP
KICK -1.20 EP
  • 35% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.56 EP
  • 65% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 49, worth -2.67 EP
PUNT -0.52 EP
What Happened
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 13, worth -0.52 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.36 EP