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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 2 at the 70

Cleveland Browns 10 – Pittsburgh Steelers 3

What Actually Happened

(2:00) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 57 yards to PIT 13, Center-50-R.Sunahara. 13-S.Miller pushed ob at PIT 22 for 9 yards (31-D.McMillon).

The Three Options

GO -1.00 EP
Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +0.96 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 70, worth -3.70 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -1.46 EP
What Happened
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 28, worth -1.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.46 EP