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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 19 at the 36

Pittsburgh Steelers 6 – Cleveland Browns 10

What Actually Happened

(12:59) 9-C.Boswell 54 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-3-C.Waitman.

The Three Options

GO -0.41 EP
  • 22% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 17, worth +4.81 EP
  • 78% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 36, worth -1.93 EP
KICK -0.01 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.56 EP
  • 38% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 46, worth -2.58 EP
PUNT -0.20 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth -0.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model