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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 13 at the 25

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – Cleveland Browns 10

What Actually Happened

(14:58) 9-C.Boswell 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-3-C.Waitman.

The Three Options

GO +0.21 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +4.88 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 25, worth -1.44 EP
KICK +0.64 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 85% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.15 EP
  • 15% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 35, worth -2.25 EP
PUNT -0.47 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth -0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model