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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 6 at the 57

Pittsburgh Steelers 6 – Cleveland Browns 10

What Actually Happened

(12:02) 3-C.Waitman punts 43 yards to CLE 14, Center-46-C.Kuntz, fair catch by 84-G.Larvadain.

The Three Options

GO -0.73 EP
Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.77 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 57, worth -3.21 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.93 EP
What Happened
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 17, worth -0.93 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model