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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Carolina Panthers 4th & 9 at the 53

Carolina Panthers 0 – Seattle Seahawks 0

What Actually Happened

(13:16) 6-S.Martin punts 35 yards to SEA 18, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 22-R.Shaheed.

The Three Options

GO -0.71 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +3.45 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 53, worth -2.77 EP
KICK -1.31 EP
  • 28% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.93 EP
  • 72% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 49, worth -2.59 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 15, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model