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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 4 at the 70

Philadelphia Eagles 0 – Buffalo Bills 0

What Actually Happened

(6:05) 10-B.Mann punts 44 yards to BUF 26, Center-47-C.Hughlett, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.38 EP
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.13 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 70, worth -4.12 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -1.37 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 28, worth -1.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model