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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 5 at the 29

Philadelphia Eagles 7 – Buffalo Bills 0

What Actually Happened

(5:07) 4-J.Elliott 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-10-B.Mann.

The Three Options

GO +0.89 EP
Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.09 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 29, worth -1.52 EP
KICK +0.69 EP
What Happened
  • 81% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.35 EP
  • 19% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 39, worth -2.17 EP
PUNT -0.47 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth -0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model