Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 6 at the 65

San Francisco 49ers 7 – Chicago Bears 7

(7:52) 7-T.Morstead punts 49 yards to CHI 16, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 12-D.Duvernay.

The Three Options

GO -0.80 EP

46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +2.39 EP
54% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 65, worth -3.53 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model