Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 6 at the 56

Minnesota Vikings 7 – Detroit Lions 7

(:26) 17-R.Wright punts 56 yards to end zone, Center-42-A.DePaola, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.39 EP

42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +1.52 EP
58% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 56, worth -1.76 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model