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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 6 at the 55

Arizona Cardinals 7 – Cincinnati Bengals 37

What Actually Happened

(14:29) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short right to 89-X.Weaver to CIN 32 for 23 yards (22-G.Stone).

The Three Options

GO -0.50 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.65 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 55, worth -2.93 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.75 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 16, worth -0.75 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model