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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 3 at the 16

Jacksonville Jaguars 14 – Indianapolis Colts 17

What Actually Happened

(1:29) 39-C.Little 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

The Three Options

GO +2.02 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +4.95 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 16, worth -0.97 EP
KICK +1.20 EP
What Happened
  • 95% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.34 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 26, worth -1.42 EP
PUNT -0.40 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth -0.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.82 EP