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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 4 at the 30

Seattle Seahawks 0 – Carolina Panthers 0

What Actually Happened

(3:28) 5-J.Myers 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

The Three Options

GO +1.15 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +4.16 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 30, worth -1.69 EP
KICK +0.59 EP
What Happened
  • 81% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.27 EP
  • 19% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 40, worth -2.37 EP
PUNT -0.37 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.56 EP