4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 8 at the 8

New York Jets 10 – New England Patriots 42

What Actually Happened

(4:03) (Shotgun) 4-B.Cook pass incomplete short left to 89-J.Ruckert.

The Three Options

GO +1.44 EP
What Happened
  • 29% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.77 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 8, worth -0.33 EP
KICK +1.76 EP
Model's Pick
  • 98% chance to make a 25-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.82 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 21, worth -0.69 EP
PUNT -0.37 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.32 EP