Fourth-Down Analyzer
Every 4th-down decision from every game this week, priced in expected points by the same submodels shown on each game's own page, just gathered here one week at a time instead of one game at a time. The objective: see which calls matched what the numbers say and which ones cost the most, across the whole week at a glance.
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Q1 TB 4th & 10 at the 47Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 33% p(FG) 37%
(10:36) 9-R.Dixon punts 40 yards to ARI 7, Center-86-E.Deckers, downed by TB-19-K.Johnson.
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Q2 TB 4th & 15 at the 78Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 31%
(15:00) 9-R.Dixon punts 56 yards to ARI 22, Center-86-E.Deckers. 4-G.Dortch ran ob at ARI 23 for 1 yard (82-D.Culp).
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Q2 ARI 4th & 3 at the 70Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.38 EPp(convert) 56%
(13:26) 39-M.Haack punts 48 yards to TB 22, Center-46-A.Brewer. 19-K.Johnson to TB 30 for 8 yards (47-C.Tindall).
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Q2 TB 4th & 7 at the 7Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 34% p(FG) 98%
(8:04) 4-C.McLaughlin 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon.
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Q2 ARI 4th & 20 at the 79Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 27%
(6:21) 39-M.Haack punts 44 yards to TB 35, Center-46-A.Brewer. 19-K.Johnson pushed ob at 50 for 15 yards (36-K.Crawford).
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Q2 TB 4th & 2 at the 14Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 56% p(FG) 96%
(2:00) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short middle to 17-S.Shepard to ARI 9 for 5 yards (50-C.Simon; 3-B.Baker).
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Q3 TB 4th & 12 at the 62Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 32%
(12:57) 9-R.Dixon punts 42 yards to ARI 20, Center-86-E.Deckers, fair catch by 4-G.Dortch. PENALTY on ARI-36-K.Crawford, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at ARI 20.
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Q3 ARI 4th & 3 at the 25Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.67 EPp(convert) 50% p(FG) 87%
(7:50) 38-C.Ryland 43 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-39-M.Haack.
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Q4 TB 4th & 5 at the 55Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 46%
(14:05) 9-R.Dixon punts 43 yards to ARI 12, Center-86-E.Deckers. 4-G.Dortch to ARI 12 for no gain (19-K.Johnson).
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Q4 ARI 4th & 1 at the 61Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 72%
(10:46) 20-Z.Knight left end to ARI 39 for no gain (98-A.Nelson; 90-L.Hall).
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Q4 TB 4th & 10 at the 39Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 32% p(FG) 59%
(9:03) 4-C.McLaughlin 57 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon.
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Q4 TB 4th & 5 at the 63 late-gameChose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 47%
(2:00) 9-R.Dixon punts 59 yards to ARI 4, Center-86-E.Deckers. 4-G.Dortch to ARI 9 for 5 yards (58-M.Watts; 32-J.Hayes).
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Q4 ARI 4th & 2 at the 83 late-gameChose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 64%
(:55) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass incomplete short middle to 14-M.Wilson (8-S.Dennis).
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Q1 ATL 4th & 2 at the 51Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.18 EPp(convert) 61% p(FG) 28%
(11:52) 13-B.Pinion punts 36 yards to NYJ 15, Center-49-L.McCullough, out of bounds.
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Q1 NYJ 4th & 2 at the 48Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.70 EPp(convert) 58% p(FG) 35%
(7:19) 14-A.McNamara punts 38 yards to ATL 10, Center-42-T.Hennessy, downed by NYJ-37-Q.Stiggers.
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Q1 ATL 4th & 10 at the 45Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 34% p(FG) 42%
(3:01) 13-B.Pinion punts 40 yards to NYJ 5, Center-49-L.McCullough, out of bounds.
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Q2 NYJ 4th & 6 at the 44Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 39% p(FG) 45%
(14:11) 14-A.McNamara punts 37 yards to ATL 7, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 14-J.Agnew MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by NYJ-37-Q.Stiggers at ATL 2.
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Q2 ATL 4th & 14 at the 50Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 29% p(FG) 30%
(10:59) 13-B.Pinion punts 32 yards to NYJ 18, Center-49-L.McCullough, fair catch by 18-I.Williams.
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Q2 NYJ 4th & 4 at the 76Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 50%
(9:34) 14-A.McNamara punts 53 yards to ATL 23, Center-42-T.Hennessy, downed by NYJ-37-Q.Stiggers.
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Q2 ATL 4th & 3 at the 49Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.50 EPp(convert) 54% p(FG) 32%
(5:47) 13-B.Pinion punts 30 yards to NYJ 19, Center-49-L.McCullough, out of bounds.
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Q3 NYJ 4th & 5 at the 60Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 44%
(13:55) 14-A.McNamara punts 55 yards to ATL 5, Center-42-T.Hennessy, downed by NYJ-37-Q.Stiggers.
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Q3 ATL 4th & 12 at the 32Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 30% p(FG) 75%
(4:51) 45-Z.Gonzalez 50 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.
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Q3 NYJ 4th & 6 at the 36Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 38% p(FG) 66%
(1:49) 6-N.Folk 55 yard field goal is No Good, Short, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-14-A.McNamara.
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Q3 ATL 4th & 5 at the 34Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.39 EPp(convert) 44% p(FG) 71%
(:02) 45-Z.Gonzalez 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.
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Q4 NYJ 4th & 9 at the 14Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 29% p(FG) 96%
(13:26) 6-N.Folk 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-14-A.McNamara.
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Q4 NYJ 4th & 1 at the 11 late-gameChose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 64% p(FG) 97%
(2:56) 2-T.Taylor up the middle to ATL 9 for 2 yards (55-K.Elliss).
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Q4 ATL 4th & 9 at the 69 late-gameChose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 38%
(1:36) 13-B.Pinion punts 55 yards to NYJ 14, Center-49-L.McCullough, downed by ATL-35-N.Brooks.
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Q4 NYJ 4th & 11 at the 87 late-gameChose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 35%
(1:06) 14-A.McNamara punts 55 yards to ATL 32, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 14-J.Agnew to ATL 33 for 1 yard (37-Q.Stiggers).
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Q4 ATL 4th & 10 at the 67 late-gameChose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 36%
(:44) 13-B.Pinion punts 40 yards to NYJ 27, Center-49-L.McCullough. 18-I.Williams to NYJ 43 for 16 yards (49-L.McCullough; 40-J.Bertrand).
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Q1 PIT 4th & 10 at the 53Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 34% p(FG) 18%
(7:39) 3-C.Waitman punts 35 yards to BUF 18, Center-46-C.Kuntz, fair catch by 10-K.Shakir.
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Q1 BUF 4th & 15 at the 47Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 29% p(FG) 31%
(3:27) 19-M.Wishnowsky punts 47 yards to end zone, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Touchback.
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Q1 PIT 4th & 4 at the 74Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 52%
(1:48) 3-C.Waitman punts 51 yards to BUF 23, Center-46-C.Kuntz, fair catch by 10-K.Shakir. PENALTY on BUF-28-S.Franklin, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at BUF 23.
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Q1 BUF 4th & 4 at the 81Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.38 EPp(convert) 54%
(:15) 19-M.Wishnowsky punts 52 yards to PIT 29, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 19-C.Austin ran ob at PIT 41 for 12 yards (41-R.Gilliam).
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Q2 PIT 4th & 9 at the 46Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 35% p(FG) 33%
(14:01) 3-C.Waitman punts 26 yards to BUF 20, Center-46-C.Kuntz, downed by PIT-26-B.Echols.
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Q2 BUF 4th & 8 at the 9Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.34 EPp(convert) 34% p(FG) 97%
(:55) 15-M.Prater 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-19-M.Wishnowsky.
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Q3 BUF 4th & 1 at the 1Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 67% p(FG) 99%
(8:53) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 0-K.Coleman for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on PIT-97-Ca.Heyward, Taunting, 15 yards, enforced between downs.
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Q3 PIT 4th & 1 at the 66Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.94 EPp(convert) 73%
(7:30) 3-C.Waitman punts 49 yards to BUF 17, Center-46-C.Kuntz, fair catch by 10-K.Shakir.
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Q3 BUF 4th & 2 at the 23Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 58% p(FG) 87%
(1:29) 26-Ty.Johnson up the middle to PIT 21 for 2 yards (97-Ca.Heyward).
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Q4 PIT 4th & 2 at the 7Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 55% p(FG) 98%
(10:16) (Shotgun) 74-S.Anderson reported in as eligible. 14-K.Gainwell up the middle to BUF 9 for -2 yards (50-G.Rousseau).
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Q4 BUF 4th & 2 at the 19 late-gameChose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 58% p(FG) 92%
(1:12) 15-M.Prater 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-19-M.Wishnowsky.
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Q1 CHI 4th & 1 at the 25Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 68% p(FG) 84%
(9:36) 25-K.Monangai right guard to PHI 24 for 1 yard (94-B.Young, 98-J.Carter). Philadelphia challenged the first down ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 25-K.Monangai right guard to PHI 25 for no gain (94-B.Young, 98-J.Carter).
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Q1 PHI 4th & 5 at the 60Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 46%
(7:05) 10-B.Mann punts 38 yards to CHI 22, Center-57-C.Adomitis, fair catch by 12-D.Duvernay.
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Q2 PHI 4th & 8 at the 26Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 35% p(FG) 82%
(13:08) 4-J.Elliott 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-C.Adomitis, Holder-10-B.Mann.
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Q2 CHI 4th & 10 at the 12Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 30% p(FG) 96%
(6:47) 8-C.Santos 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor.
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Q2 PHI 4th & 3 at the 63Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.32 EPp(convert) 56%
(5:07) 10-B.Mann punts 63 yards to end zone, Center-57-C.Adomitis, Touchback.
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Q2 CHI 4th & 20 at the 77Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 27%
(2:59) 19-T.Taylor punts 49 yards to PHI 28, Center-46-S.Daly. 18-B.Covey MUFFS catch, and recovers at PHI 26. 18-B.Covey to PHI 35 for 9 yards (21-T.Homer).
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Q2 PHI 4th & 8 at the 63Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 39%
(1:43) 10-B.Mann punts 44 yards to CHI 19, Center-57-C.Adomitis, out of bounds.
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Q3 PHI 4th & 9 at the 72Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 38%
(14:01) 10-B.Mann punts 60 yards to CHI 12, Center-57-C.Adomitis. 12-D.Duvernay to CHI 24 for 12 yards (7-K.Ringo).
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Q3 CHI 4th & 10 at the 66Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 36%
(12:27) 19-T.Taylor punts 40 yards to PHI 26, Center-46-S.Daly, out of bounds.
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Q3 CHI 4th & 3 at the 44Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.85 EPp(convert) 53% p(FG) 37%
(10:06) 19-T.Taylor punts 36 yards to PHI 8, Center-46-S.Daly, fair catch by 18-B.Covey.
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Q3 CHI 4th & 5 at the 37Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 43% p(FG) 57%
(:56) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass short left to 84-C.Loveland ran ob at PHI 30 for 7 yards.
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Q4 PHI 4th & 8 at the 77Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 41%
(11:22) 10-B.Mann punts 40 yards to CHI 37, Center-57-C.Adomitis, out of bounds.
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Q4 CHI 4th & 4 at the 30 late-gameChose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.12 EPp(convert) 46% p(FG) 74%
(1:15) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass incomplete short middle to 10-L.Burden.
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Q4 PHI 4th & 4 at the 34 late-gameChose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 47% p(FG) 65%
(:13) 4-J.Elliott 52 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-57-C.Adomitis, Holder-10-B.Mann.
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Q1 CIN 4th & 7 at the 13Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.39 EPp(convert) 34% p(FG) 96%
(9:42) 2-E.McPherson 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-W.Wagner, Holder-8-R.Rehkow.
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Q1 CIN 4th & 8 at the 65Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 38%
(5:08) 8-R.Rehkow punts 51 yards to BAL 14, Center-46-W.Wagner, downed by CIN-46-W.Wagner.
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Q1 CIN 4th & 2 at the 2Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 54% p(FG) 99%
(2:35) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass incomplete short left to 88-M.Gesicki (14-K.Hamilton).
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Q1 BAL 4th & 11 at the 99Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 40%
(1:45) 11-J.Stout punts 61 yards to CIN 38, Center-46-N.Moore. 15-C.Jones to CIN 47 for 9 yards (27-T.Tampa).
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Q2 CIN 4th & 1 at the 32Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 68% p(FG) 74%
(13:06) 9-J.Burrow up the middle to BAL 30 for 2 yards (0-R.Smith; 14-K.Hamilton).
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Q2 CIN 4th & 4 at the 24Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 45% p(FG) 87%
(11:28) 2-E.McPherson 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-W.Wagner, Holder-8-R.Rehkow.
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Q2 CIN 4th & 6 at the 6Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 36% p(FG) 98%
(2:39) 2-E.McPherson 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-W.Wagner, Holder-8-R.Rehkow.
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Q2 BAL 4th & 19 at the 45Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 26% p(FG) 40%
(1:42) 11-J.Stout punts 45 yards to end zone, Center-46-N.Moore, Touchback.
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Q2 CIN 4th & 10 at the 54Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 34%
(:44) 8-R.Rehkow punts 54 yards to end zone, Center-46-W.Wagner, Touchback.
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Q2 CIN 4th & 6 at the 15Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 37% p(FG) 95%
(:14) 2-E.McPherson 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-W.Wagner, Holder-8-R.Rehkow.
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Q3 BAL 4th & 4 at the 72Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.33 EPp(convert) 53%
(12:57) 11-J.Stout punts 43 yards to CIN 29, Center-46-N.Moore. 82-M.Tinsley to CIN 39 for 10 yards (39-K.Jackson; 88-C.Kolar).
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Q4 CIN 4th & 3 at the 34Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.88 EPp(convert) 51% p(FG) 69%
(9:30) 2-E.McPherson 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-W.Wagner, Holder-8-R.Rehkow.
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Q4 BAL 4th & 8 at the 51Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 39% p(FG) 26%
(8:01) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass incomplete short right to 4-Z.Flowers (28-J.Newton).
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Q4 BAL 4th & 2 at the 76 late-gameChose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 65%
(4:43) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short middle to 89-M.Andrews to BAL 38 for 14 yards (23-D.Hill).
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Q4 CIN 4th & 9 at the 23 late-gameChose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 32% p(FG) 88%
(1:11) 2-E.McPherson 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-W.Wagner, Holder-8-R.Rehkow.
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Q1 DEN 4th & 5 at the 15Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.64 EPp(convert) 43% p(FG) 95%
(10:31) 3-W.Lutz 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-16-J.Crawshaw.
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Q1 WAS 4th & 8 at the 39Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 35% p(FG) 55%
(4:43) 10-T.Way punts 28 yards to DEN 11, Center-45-Z.Triner, fair catch by 19-M.Mims.
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Q1 DEN 4th & 4 at the 83Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.38 EPp(convert) 55%
(3:04) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 41 yards to WAS 42, Center-48-M.Fraboni, fair catch by 83-J.Lane.
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Q2 DEN 4th & 1 at the 45Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 72% p(FG) 38%
(11:05) 10-B.Nix pass short left to 82-A.Trautman pushed ob at WAS 23 for 22 yards (55-J.Martin).
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Q2 DEN 4th & 8 at the 10Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.62 EPp(convert) 34% p(FG) 97%
(7:54) 3-W.Lutz 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-16-J.Crawshaw.
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Q3 WAS 4th & 9 at the 54Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 35%
(:55) 10-T.Way punts 40 yards to DEN 14, Center-45-Z.Triner, downed by WAS-18-T.Owens.
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Q4 WAS 4th & 8 at the 20Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 33% p(FG) 91%
(12:40) 16-J.Moody 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-Z.Triner, Holder-10-T.Way.
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Q4 DEN 4th & 9 at the 70Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 40%
(10:19) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 43 yards to WAS 27, Center-48-M.Fraboni, out of bounds.
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Q4 WAS 4th & 2 at the 65Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.77 EPp(convert) 61%
(8:48) 10-T.Way punts 45 yards to DEN 20, Center-45-Z.Triner, fair catch by 19-M.Mims. ** Injury Update: WAS-35-P.Butler has returned to the game.
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Q4 DEN 4th & 4 at the 47 late-gameChose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.77 EPp(convert) 51% p(FG) 33%
(4:52) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 47 yards to end zone, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Touchback.
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Q4 DEN 4th & 4 at the 65 late-gameChose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 53%
(3:09) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 50 yards to WAS 15, Center-48-M.Fraboni. 83-J.Lane to WAS 15 for no gain (34-J.Skinner).
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Q4 WAS 4th & 1 at the 65 late-gameChose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 72%
(2:17) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 26-J.McNichols up the middle to WAS 37 for 2 yards (15-N.Bonitto).
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Q4 WAS 4th & 6 at the 45 late-gameChose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 40% p(FG) 38%
(:52) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass short middle to 86-Z.Ertz to DEN 37 for 8 yards (23-J.Barron).
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Q1 GB 4th & 10 at the 27Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 33% p(FG) 86%
(9:17) 17-B.McManus 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.
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Q1 DET 4th & 8 at the 63Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 39%
(8:27) 3-J.Fox punts 46 yards to GB 17, Center-49-H.Hatten, fair catch by 87-R.Doubs.
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Q1 GB 4th & 5 at the 78Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 51%
(6:47) 19-D.Whelan punts 62 yards to DET 16, Center-42-M.Orzech. 85-T.Kennedy to DET 37 for 21 yards (33-E.Williams; 54-K.Welch).
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Q2 GB 4th & 3 at the 22Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 52% p(FG) 91%
(14:25) 10-J.Love pass deep left to 13-D.Wicks for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
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Q2 GB 4th & 1 at the 2Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 67% p(FG) 99%
(2:16) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short left to 87-R.Doubs for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
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Q3 DET 4th & 3 at the 47Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 53% p(FG) 44%
(11:13) (Shotgun) 0-J.Gibbs right guard to GB 49 for -2 yards (1-M.Parsons, 58-I.McDuffie).
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Q4 DET 4th & 3 at the 21Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 50% p(FG) 92%
(10:55) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass incomplete short right to 1-J.Williams.
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Q4 GB 4th & 4 at the 72Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 54%
(9:13) 19-D.Whelan punts 72 yards to end zone, Center-42-M.Orzech, Touchback.
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Q4 DET 4th & 13 at the 13 late-gameChose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 26% p(FG) 96%
(3:02) 39-J.Bates 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox.
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Q4 GB 4th & 3 at the 45 late-gameChose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 55% p(FG) 50%
(1:55) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass deep left to 13-D.Wicks to DET 29 for 16 yards (32-B.Branch) [54-A.McNeill].
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Q1 IND 4th & 8 at the 63Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 39%
(14:17) 8-R.Sanchez punts 45 yards to HOU 18, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 14-J.Noel pushed ob at HOU 32 for 14 yards (59-B.Johnson).
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Q1 HOU 4th & 4 at the 4Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.96 EPp(convert) 43% p(FG) 98%
(7:58) 15-K.Fairbairn 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-6-T.Townsend.
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Q1 IND 4th & 10 at the 73Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 37%
(5:48) 8-R.Sanchez punts 55 yards to HOU 18, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 14-J.Noel to HOU 32 for 14 yards (58-A.Ajiake; 85-A.Ogletree).
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Q1 HOU 4th & 4 at the 62Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 50%
(2:57) 6-T.Townsend punts 44 yards to IND 18, Center-40-A.Brinkman. 6-A.Gould to IND 23 for 5 yards (37-A.Speed).
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Q1 IND 4th & 7 at the 59Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 41%
(:43) 8-R.Sanchez punts 42 yards to HOU 17, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 14-J.Noel.
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Q2 HOU 4th & 7 at the 80Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 43%
(14:22) 6-T.Townsend punts 52 yards to IND 28, Center-40-A.Brinkman. 6-A.Gould pushed ob at IND 37 for 9 yards (87-C.Stover).
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Q2 IND 4th & 1 at the 9Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 67% p(FG) 98%
(10:19) Direct snap to 84-T.Warren. 84-T.Warren FUMBLES (Aborted) at HOU 10, recovered by IND-28-J.Taylor at HOU 11. 28-J.Taylor to HOU 11 for no gain (95-D.Barnett, 4-K.Lassiter).
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Q2 IND 4th & 15 at the 47Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 28% p(FG) 44%
(2:00) 8-R.Sanchez punts 47 yards to end zone, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Touchback.
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Q2 HOU 4th & 2 at the 47Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.77 EPp(convert) 60% p(FG) 44%
(:02) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass incomplete deep right (14-A.Pierce).
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Q4 IND 4th & 7 at the 24Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 37% p(FG) 89%
(8:44) 12-M.Badgley 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.
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Q4 HOU 4th & 1 at the 17 late-gameChose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 67% p(FG) 95%
(4:53) 57-B.Fisher reported in as eligible. Direct snap to 87-C.Stover. 87-C.Stover left guard to IND 17 for no gain (44-Z.Franklin; 92-N.Gallimore). (Virtual Measurement).
-
Q4 IND 4th & 9 at the 31 late-gameChose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.88 EPp(convert) 34% p(FG) 80%
(1:49) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass incomplete short right to 11-M.Pittman [51-W.Anderson].
-
Q1 JAX 4th & 5 at the 49Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 46% p(FG) 33%
(11:13) 9-L.Cooke punts 38 yards to TEN 11, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 17-C.Dike pushed ob at TEN 20 for 9 yards (46-R.Matiscik).
-
Q1 TEN 4th & 3 at the 10Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.81 EPp(convert) 45% p(FG) 97%
(5:08) 6-J.Slye 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-3-J.Hekker.
-
Q2 TEN 4th & 15 at the 80Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 28%
(12:39) 3-J.Hekker punts 55 yards to JAX 25, Center-46-M.Cox. 11-P.Washington to JAX 39 for 14 yards (36-J.Chestnut). PENALTY on JAX-51-V.Miller, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at JAX 39.
-
Q2 JAX 4th & 10 at the 71Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 37%
(11:04) 9-L.Cooke punts 43 yards to TEN 28, Center-52-D.Hamilton, fair catch by 17-C.Dike. Penalty on TEN-31-K.Mullings, Defensive Offside, declined.
-
Q2 TEN 4th & 3 at the 65Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.40 EPp(convert) 52%
(9:20) 3-J.Hekker punts 45 yards to JAX 20, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 11-P.Washington.
-
Q2 JAX 4th & 7 at the 72Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 43%
(7:18) 9-L.Cooke punts 33 yards to TEN 39, Center-52-D.Hamilton. 17-C.Dike to TEN 41 for 2 yards (80-Q.Morris; 26-An.Johnson).
-
Q2 TEN 4th & 8 at the 57Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 35%
(5:28) 3-J.Hekker punts 57 yards to end zone, Center-46-M.Cox, Touchback. JAX-11-P.Washington was injured during the play.
-
Q2 TEN 4th & 2 at the 21Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 53% p(FG) 91%
(:25) 1-C.Ward pass incomplete short right to 20-T.Pollard [41-J.Hines-Allen].
-
Q3 TEN 4th & 1 at the 72Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.27 EPp(convert) 70%
(13:28) 3-J.Hekker punts 43 yards to JAX 29, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 81-A.Trammell.
-
Q3 JAX 4th & 1 at the 4Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 66% p(FG) 98%
(7:32) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence up the middle to TEN 2 for 2 yards (93-T.Sweat; 98-J.Simmons).
-
Q3 TEN 4th & 7 at the 55Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 37%
(3:14) 3-J.Hekker punts 32 yards to JAX 23, Center-46-M.Cox, out of bounds.
-
Q4 TEN 4th & 6 at the 34Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 37% p(FG) 71%
(13:18) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass incomplete short left to 5-E.Ayomanor.
-
Q4 JAX 4th & 15 at the 71Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 31%
(11:40) 9-L.Cooke punts 49 yards to TEN 22, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 17-C.Dike to TEN 35 for 13 yards (54-J.Kiser; 46-R.Matiscik). Penalty on TEN-44-M.Brown, Disqualification, offsetting. Penalty on JAX-9-L.Cooke, Unnecessary Roughness, offsetting. Penalty on JAX-46-R.Matiscik, Unnecessary Roughness, offsetting. Penalty on TEN-35-K.Elam, Unnecessary Roughness, offsetting.
-
Q4 TEN 4th & 4 at the 50Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 45% p(FG) 31%
(9:08) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass short left to 2-T.Spears to JAX 45 for 5 yards (23-F.Oluokun).
-
Q4 TEN 4th & 18 at the 53Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.42 EPp(convert) 23% p(FG) 24%
(6:56) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass short right to 2-T.Spears to JAX 48 for 5 yards (98-D.Smoot; 95-B.Green).
-
Q4 JAX 4th & 8 at the 50Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 38% p(FG) 31%
(5:25) 9-L.Cooke punts 45 yards to TEN 5, Center-46-R.Matiscik, fair catch by 17-C.Dike.
-
Q1 KC 4th & 2 at the 2Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 58% p(FG) 99%
(:05) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short middle to 87-T.Kelce for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
-
Q2 DAL 4th & 4 at the 48Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 50% p(FG) 42%
(12:29) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short left to 87-J.Ferguson to KC 38 for 10 yards (32-N.Bolton; 34-M.Edwards).
-
Q2 DAL 4th & 3 at the 31Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.70 EPp(convert) 52% p(FG) 80%
(10:27) 17-B.Aubrey 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.
-
Q2 KC 4th & 16 at the 47Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 30% p(FG) 44%
(6:10) 14-M.Araiza punts 32 yards to DAL 15, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 9-K.Turpin.
-
Q2 KC 4th & 19 at the 52Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 28% p(FG) 32%
(:18) 14-M.Araiza punts 38 yards to DAL 14, Center-41-J.Winchester, out of bounds.
-
Q3 KC 4th & 5 at the 49Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.55 EPp(convert) 49% p(FG) 39%
(12:26) 14-M.Araiza punts 46 yards to DAL 3, Center-41-J.Winchester, downed by KC-38-K.Knowles.
-
Q3 DAL 4th & 2 at the 89Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.13 EPp(convert) 66%
(11:02) 5-B.Anger punts 62 yards to KC 27, Center-44-T.Sieg. 81-N.Remigio pushed ob at KC 37 for 10 yards (89-B.Spann-Ford).
-
Q3 KC 4th & 1 at the 54Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 74%
(8:50) (Shotgun) 60-H.Nourzad reported in as eligible. 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 12-J.Wiley to 50 for 4 yards (59-K.Murray).
-
Q3 KC 4th & 4 at the 44Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.88 EPp(convert) 52% p(FG) 52%
(7:12) 14-M.Araiza punts 40 yards to DAL 4, Center-41-J.Winchester, downed by KC-38-K.Knowles.
-
Q3 DAL 4th & 8 at the 18Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 35% p(FG) 94%
(4:13) 17-B.Aubrey 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.
-
Q4 KC 4th & 3 at the 3Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 51% p(FG) 99%
(14:56) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 4-R.Rice for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
-
Q4 KC 4th & 8 at the 59Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 42%
(9:35) 14-M.Araiza punts 59 yards to end zone, Center-41-J.Winchester, Touchback. PENALTY on DAL-29-C.Goodwin, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at DAL 20.
-
Q4 DAL 4th & 4 at the 8Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.80 EPp(convert) 45% p(FG) 98%
(5:20) 17-B.Aubrey 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.
-
Q1 CAR 4th & 3 at the 73Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 54%
(2:44) 6-S.Martin punts 45 yards to LA 28, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 19-X.Smith.
-
Q2 CAR 4th & 1 at the 24Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 65% p(FG) 89%
(8:50) 5-R.Dowdle right end to LA 18 for 6 yards (0-B.Young; 2-J.McCollough).
-
Q2 CAR 4th & 6 at the 14Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 35% p(FG) 96%
(5:38) 10-R.Fitzgerald 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-6-S.Martin.
-
Q2 CAR 4th & 10 at the 48Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 31% p(FG) 39%
(:21) 6-S.Martin punts 39 yards to LA 9, Center-44-J.Jansen, downed by CAR-87-B.Tremayne.
-
Q3 CAR 4th & 3 at the 33Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 48% p(FG) 76%
(8:54) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass deep right to 18-J.Coker for 33 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
-
Q3 LA 4th & 13 at the 75Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 36%
(7:12) 42-E.Evans punts 56 yards to CAR 19, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 23-T.Etienne pushed ob at LA 46 for 35 yards (20-R.Rivers). PENALTY on CAR-48-T.Incoom, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CAR 34.
-
Q4 CAR 4th & 20 at the 39Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 21% p(FG) 62%
(13:41) 6-S.Martin punts 28 yards to LA 11, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 19-X.Smith.
-
Q4 CAR 4th & 2 at the 43Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 56% p(FG) 52%
(6:43) 9-B.Young pass deep right to 4-T.McMillan for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
-
Q1 LV 4th & 13 at the 66Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 28%
(13:23) 6-A.Cole punts 40 yards to LAC 26, impetus ends at LAC 27, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer. 43-T.Dye to LAC 26 for no gain.
-
Q1 LV 4th & 18 at the 53Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 22% p(FG) 30%
(1:54) 6-A.Cole punts 46 yards to LAC 7, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, fair catch by 12-D.Davis.
-
Q2 LAC 4th & 1 at the 18Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 66% p(FG) 94%
(6:37) (Shotgun) 30-K.Vidal left guard to LV 18 for no gain (45-D.White; 69-A.Butler).
-
Q2 LAC 4th & 1 at the 57Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.31 EPp(convert) 71%
(:29) 16-J.Scott punts 57 yards to end zone, Center-47-J.Harris, Touchback.
-
Q3 LV 4th & 9 at the 64Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 33%
(12:03) 6-A.Cole punts 50 yards to LAC 14, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, out of bounds.
-
Q3 LAC 4th & 10 at the 86Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 37%
(9:49) 16-J.Scott punts 58 yards to LV 28, Center-47-J.Harris. 81-A.Bachman to LV 30 for 2 yards (53-D.Phillips).
-
Q3 LV 4th & 13 at the 73Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 28%
(7:35) 6-A.Cole punts 51 yards to LAC 22, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer. 12-D.Davis to LAC 40 for 18 yards (55-C.Lindenberg).
-
Q3 LV 4th & 1 at the 57Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 68%
(:55) 2-A.Jeanty left tackle to LV 42 for -1 yards (45-T.Tuipulotu).
-
Q4 LAC 4th & 6 at the 38Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 40% p(FG) 67%
(14:54) 11-C.Dicker 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.
-
Q4 LV 4th & 13 at the 69 late-gameChose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 28%
(:50) (Shotgun) 31-R.Mostert left guard to LV 37 for 6 yards (23-T.Jefferson).
-
Q1 MIN 4th & 12 at the 60Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 29%
(11:18) 17-R.Wright punts 56 yards to SEA 4, Center-42-A.DePaola, fair catch by 22-R.Shaheed.
-
Q1 MIN 4th & 2 at the 66Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.58 EPp(convert) 59%
(3:38) 17-R.Wright punts 60 yards to SEA 6, Center-42-A.DePaola. 22-R.Shaheed to SEA 14 for 8 yards (13-T.Felton; 98-B.Richter).
-
Q1 SEA 4th & 9 at the 85Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 42%
(2:36) 4-M.Dickson punts 48 yards to MIN 37, Center-41-C.Stoll, fair catch by 4-M.Price. PENALTY on MIN-98-B.Richter, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at MIN 37.
-
Q1 MIN 4th & 8 at the 71Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 37%
(1:36) 17-R.Wright punts 55 yards to SEA 16, Center-42-A.DePaola. 22-R.Shaheed pushed ob at SEA 32 for 16 yards (56-A.Keys).
-
Q2 SEA 4th & 15 at the 15Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 26% p(FG) 95%
(7:12) 5-J.Myers 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.
-
Q2 MIN 4th & 5 at the 53Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 42% p(FG) 28%
(5:33) 17-R.Wright punts 31 yards to SEA 22, Center-42-A.DePaola, fair catch by 22-R.Shaheed.
-
Q2 MIN 4th & 1 at the 4Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 62% p(FG) 98%
(3:14) 12-M.Brosmer pass short right INTERCEPTED by 13-E.Jones [0-D.Lawrence] at SEA 15. 13-E.Jones for 85 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
-
Q2 MIN 4th & 18 at the 76Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 26%
(1:12) 17-R.Wright punts 50 yards to SEA 26, Center-42-A.DePaola. 22-R.Shaheed pushed ob at SEA 45 for 19 yards (98-B.Richter).
-
Q2 SEA 4th & 3 at the 38Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 55% p(FG) 65%
(:12) 5-J.Myers 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.
-
Q3 SEA 4th & 1 at the 36Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.75 EPp(convert) 72% p(FG) 70%
(11:19) 5-J.Myers 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.
-
Q3 SEA 4th & 9 at the 21Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 34% p(FG) 92%
(3:19) 5-J.Myers 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.
-
Q4 SEA 4th & 5 at the 53Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.42 EPp(convert) 48% p(FG) 28%
(13:34) 4-M.Dickson punts 53 yards to end zone, Center-41-C.Stoll, Touchback.
-
Q4 SEA 4th & 1 at the 23Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 70% p(FG) 90%
(10:40) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short left to 88-A.Barner to MIN 21 for 2 yards (7-B.Murphy).
-
Q4 MIN 4th & 13 at the 40 late-gameChose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.40 EPp(convert) 26% p(FG) 61%
(3:15) (Shotgun) 12-M.Brosmer sacked at SEA 47 for -7 yards (sack split by 42-D.Thomas and 7-U.Nwosu).
-
Q4 SEA 4th & 4 at the 47 late-gameChose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.67 EPp(convert) 51% p(FG) 43%
(1:00) 4-M.Dickson punts 45 yards to MIN 2, impetus ends at MIN 1, Center-41-C.Stoll, downed by SEA-32-V.Jones.
-
Q1 NO 4th & 2 at the 65Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.52 EPp(convert) 60%
(9:08) 32-K.Kroeger punts 47 yards to MIA 18, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 6-M.Washington.
-
Q1 MIA 4th & 8 at the 80Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 40%
(8:13) 16-J.Bailey punts 53 yards to NO 27, Center-49-J.Cardona. 11-D.Pettis to NO 34 for 7 yards (51-C.Johnson).
-
Q1 NO 4th & 4 at the 60Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 48%
(6:37) 32-K.Kroeger punts 60 yards to end zone, Center-49-Z.Wood, Touchback.
-
Q1 MIA 4th & 18 at the 88Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 29%
(4:18) 16-J.Bailey punts 49 yards to NO 39, Center-49-J.Cardona. 11-D.Pettis pushed ob at NO 44 for 5 yards (22-E.Campbell).
-
Q1 NO 4th & 3 at the 49Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.54 EPp(convert) 51% p(FG) 31%
(2:08) 32-K.Kroeger punts 38 yards to MIA 11, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 6-M.Washington.
-
Q2 MIA 4th & 7 at the 21Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 35% p(FG) 90%
(14:13) 47-R.Patterson 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-16-J.Bailey.
-
Q2 NO 4th & 10 at the 80Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 35%
(11:43) 32-K.Kroeger punts 46 yards to MIA 34, Center-49-Z.Wood, downed by NO-43-M.Davis. PENALTY on NO-43-M.Davis, Kick Catch Interference, 15 yards, enforced at MIA 34.
-
Q2 MIA 4th & 7 at the 7Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 33% p(FG) 98%
(6:10) 47-R.Patterson 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-16-J.Bailey.
-
Q3 MIA 4th & 1 at the 64Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.08 EPp(convert) 72%
(9:05) 16-J.Bailey punts 54 yards to NO 10, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 11-D.Pettis.
-
Q3 NO 4th & 13 at the 58Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 29%
(4:57) 32-K.Kroeger punts 54 yards to MIA 4, Center-49-Z.Wood, downed by NO-28-D.Stutsman.
-
Q3 MIA 4th & 12 at the 57Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 31%
(:22) 16-J.Bailey punts 45 yards to NO 12, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 11-D.Pettis.
-
Q4 NO 4th & 12 at the 90Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 34%
(13:33) 32-K.Kroeger punts 48 yards to MIA 42, Center-49-Z.Wood. 6-M.Washington to MIA 47 for 5 yards (27-I.Yiadom).
-
Q4 MIA 4th & 14 at the 15Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 25% p(FG) 95%
(9:42) 47-R.Patterson 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-16-J.Bailey.
-
Q4 NO 4th & 7 at the 37Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 36% p(FG) 62%
(6:13) 39-C.Smyth 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-32-K.Kroeger.
-
Q4 MIA 4th & 1 at the 43 late-gameChose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 69% p(FG) 46%
(3:05) 64-D.Brunskill reported in as eligible. 31-O.Gordon left guard to NO 44 for -1 yards (4-K.McKinstry).
-
Q4 NO 4th & 1 at the 36 late-gameChose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.38 EPp(convert) 67% p(FG) 65%
(:35) 6-T.Shough up the middle to MIA 36 for no gain (44-C.Robinson).
-
Q1 NE 4th & 4 at the 4Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.09 EPp(convert) 46% p(FG) 98%
(9:17) 36-A.Borregales 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Ashby, Holder-17-B.Baringer.
-
Q1 NYG 4th & 7 at the 60Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 41%
(5:37) 12-J.Gillan punts 54 yards to NE 6, Center-59-C.Kreiter. 25-M.Jones for 94 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
-
Q1 NYG 4th & 16 at the 76Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 30%
(3:49) 12-J.Gillan punts 54 yards to NE 22, Center-59-C.Kreiter. 25-M.Jones to NE 39 for 17 yards (47-N.Hewitt; 46-Z.Barnes).
-
Q2 NE 4th & 1 at the 66Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.61 EPp(convert) 75%
(10:44) 17-B.Baringer punts 22 yards to NYG 44, Center-47-J.Ashby, out of bounds.
-
Q2 NYG 4th & 10 at the 29Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.38 EPp(convert) 32% p(FG) 82%
(6:28) (Field Goal formation) 12-J.Gillan right end to NE 42 for -13 yards (98-J.Pharms).
-
Q2 NE 4th & 6 at the 12Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 41% p(FG) 96%
(1:51) 36-A.Borregales 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Ashby, Holder-17-B.Baringer.
-
Q2 NYG 4th & 6 at the 65Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 44%
(1:13) 12-J.Gillan punts 42 yards to NE 23, Center-59-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 25-M.Jones.
-
Q3 NYG 4th & 6 at the 38Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 40% p(FG) 63%
(10:50) (Shotgun) 6-J.Dart pass incomplete short middle to 84-T.Johnson (15-M.Mapu) [2-H.Landry].
-
Q3 NE 4th & 6 at the 36Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 44% p(FG) 68%
(5:34) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short left to 8-S.Diggs to NYG 26 for 10 yards (21-P.Adebo).
-
Q3 NE 4th & 11 at the 27Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 33% p(FG) 85%
(4:13) 36-A.Borregales 45 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-47-J.Ashby, Holder-17-B.Baringer.
-
Q4 NE 4th & 13 at the 46Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 33% p(FG) 42%
(10:52) 17-B.Baringer punts 32 yards to NYG 14, Center-47-J.Ashby, fair catch by 8-J.Holland.
-
Q4 NYG 4th & 8 at the 73Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 40%
(7:52) 12-J.Gillan punts 49 yards to NE 24, Center-59-C.Kreiter. 25-M.Jones to NE 37 for 13 yards (46-Z.Barnes; 57-C.Golston).
-
Q4 NE 4th & 5 at the 5 late-gameChose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.56 EPp(convert) 43% p(FG) 98%
(2:17) 36-A.Borregales 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Ashby, Holder-17-B.Baringer.
-
Q4 NYG 4th & 8 at the 41 late-gameChose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.69 EPp(convert) 36% p(FG) 56%
(1:12) (Shotgun) 6-J.Dart pass incomplete short middle to 84-T.Johnson (53-C.Elliss) [51-J.Gibbens].
-
Q1 SF 4th & 9 at the 51Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 35% p(FG) 19%
(13:19) 7-T.Morstead punts 38 yards to CLE 13, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 84-G.Larvadain.
-
Q1 CLE 4th & 3 at the 66Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 53%
(10:40) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 48 yards to SF 18, Center-50-R.Sunahara. 9-S.Moore pushed ob at CLE 16 for 66 yards (86-B.Whiteheart).
-
Q1 CLE 4th & 1 at the 20Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 65% p(FG) 90%
(3:02) 72-K.Leveston reported in as eligible. 10-Q.Judkins right guard to SF 21 for -1 yards (6-M.Mustapha, 92-J.Elliott).
-
Q1 SF 4th & 9 at the 78Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 38%
(1:38) 7-T.Morstead punts 42 yards to CLE 36, Center-46-J.Weeks. 84-G.Larvadain to CLE 38 for 2 yards (31-I.Guerendo; 28-D.Luter). FUMBLES (31-I.Guerendo), and recovers at CLE 39.
-
Q2 SF 4th & 4 at the 40Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.07 EPp(convert) 47% p(FG) 46%
(6:28) 7-T.Morstead punts 30 yards to CLE 10, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 84-G.Larvadain.
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Q3 CLE 4th & 6 at the 59Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 40%
(12:21) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 38 yards to SF 21, Center-50-R.Sunahara. 9-S.Moore to SF 22 for 1 yard (86-B.Whiteheart; 42-E.Mascarenas-Arnold).
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Q3 SF 4th & 13 at the 59Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 31%
(9:14) 7-T.Morstead punts 36 yards to CLE 23, Center-46-J.Weeks. 84-G.Larvadain MUFFS catch, and recovers at CLE 24.
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Q3 CLE 4th & 1 at the 67Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 70%
(7:08) 74-T.Jenkins reported in as eligible. Direct snap to 44-H.Fannin. 44-H.Fannin FUMBLES (Aborted) at CLE 32, RECOVERED by SF-57-L.Gifford at CLE 32.
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Q3 CLE 4th & 9 at the 94Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 38%
(:38) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 43 yards to CLE 49, Center-50-R.Sunahara. 9-S.Moore to CLE 47 for 2 yards (31-D.McMillon; 41-C.Edmonds).
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Q4 SF 4th & 11 at the 48Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 32% p(FG) 25%
(13:35) 7-T.Morstead punts 32 yards to CLE 16, Center-46-J.Weeks. 84-G.Larvadain MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by SF-28-D.Luter at CLE 18.
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Q4 CLE 4th & 16 at the 48Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.65 EPp(convert) 25% p(FG) 25%
(7:30) (Shotgun) 12-S.Sanders sacked at CLE 42 for -10 yards (56-K.White).
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Q4 SF 4th & 9 at the 13 late-gameChose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 31% p(FG) 95%
(4:13) 14-M.Gay 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-7-T.Morstead.