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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 8 at the 10

Denver Broncos 3 – Washington Commanders 0

What Actually Happened

(7:54) 3-W.Lutz 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-16-J.Crawshaw.

The Three Options

GO +2.05 EP
Model's Pick
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +6.11 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 10, worth -0.09 EP
KICK +1.43 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.50 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 21, worth -0.94 EP
PUNT -0.19 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.19 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.62 EP