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Denver Broncos

HC Sean Payton
@
WAS Home

Washington Commanders

HC Dan Quinn
Sunday 2025-11-30 · 20:20 FedExField, Landover US 🌧 Rain Spread -6.5 O/U 43.5

Win Probability

DEN
51.9%
WAS
48.1%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • WAS defense: +0.209 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
  • WAS offense: +0.046 EPA/play over its last 8 games (12th in the league)
  • DEN defense: -0.113 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (4th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

DEN 24
–
WAS 21
Projected margin: DEN by 3 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 13

DEN

Nate Adkins TE Out Knee
Jonah Elliss LB Out Hamstring

WAS

Tyler Ott LS Out Illness
Noah Brown WR Out Groin
Drake Jackson DE Out Knee
Jayden Daniels QB Out Elbow
Chris Moore WR Questionable Illness
Will Harris S Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2025 week 13 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

DEN 27
–
WAS 26

Prediction missed by 2 pts on margin, 8 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 10:31 FG DEN (10:31) 3-W.Lutz 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-16-J.Crawshaw. DEN 3 – WAS 0
  • Q2 07:54 FG DEN (7:54) 3-W.Lutz 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-16-J.Crawshaw. DEN 6 – WAS 0
  • Q2 02:25 TD WAS (2:25) (Shotgun) 36-C.Rodriguez up the middle for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 6 – WAS 6
  • Q2 00:28 TD DEN (:28) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short right to 14-C.Sutton for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN [52-P.Smith]. DEN 12 – WAS 7
  • Q3 10:02 TD WAS (10:02) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass short right to 13-T.Burks for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 13 – WAS 13
  • Q3 04:02 TD DEN (4:02) 73-F.Crum reported in as eligible. 12-R.Harvey left tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 19 – WAS 14
  • Q4 12:40 FG WAS (12:40) 16-J.Moody 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-Z.Triner, Holder-10-T.Way. DEN 20 – WAS 17
  • Q4 00:04 FG WAS (:04) 16-J.Moody 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-Z.Triner, Holder-10-T.Way. DEN 20 – WAS 20
  • Q5 07:03 TD DEN (7:03) 12-R.Harvey left tackle for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 26 – WAS 20
  • Q5 02:50 TD WAS (2:50) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass short left to 17-T.McLaurin for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 27 – WAS 26

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 DEN 4th & 5 at the 15
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.64 EP
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 95%

    (10:31) 3-W.Lutz 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-16-J.Crawshaw.

  • Q1 WAS 4th & 8 at the 39
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 55%

    (4:43) 10-T.Way punts 28 yards to DEN 11, Center-45-Z.Triner, fair catch by 19-M.Mims.

  • Q1 DEN 4th & 4 at the 83
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.38 EP
    p(convert) 55%

    (3:04) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 41 yards to WAS 42, Center-48-M.Fraboni, fair catch by 83-J.Lane.

  • Q2 DEN 4th & 1 at the 45
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 72% p(FG) 38%

    (11:05) 10-B.Nix pass short left to 82-A.Trautman pushed ob at WAS 23 for 22 yards (55-J.Martin).

  • Q2 DEN 4th & 8 at the 10
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.62 EP
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 97%

    (7:54) 3-W.Lutz 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-16-J.Crawshaw.

  • Q3 WAS 4th & 9 at the 54
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (:55) 10-T.Way punts 40 yards to DEN 14, Center-45-Z.Triner, downed by WAS-18-T.Owens.

  • Q4 WAS 4th & 8 at the 20
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 91%

    (12:40) 16-J.Moody 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-Z.Triner, Holder-10-T.Way.

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 9 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (10:19) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 43 yards to WAS 27, Center-48-M.Fraboni, out of bounds.

  • Q4 WAS 4th & 2 at the 65
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.77 EP
    p(convert) 61%

    (8:48) 10-T.Way punts 45 yards to DEN 20, Center-45-Z.Triner, fair catch by 19-M.Mims. ** Injury Update: WAS-35-P.Butler has returned to the game.

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 4 at the 47 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.77 EP
    p(convert) 51% p(FG) 33%

    (4:52) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 47 yards to end zone, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Touchback.

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 4 at the 65 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 53%

    (3:09) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 50 yards to WAS 15, Center-48-M.Fraboni. 83-J.Lane to WAS 15 for no gain (34-J.Skinner).

  • Q4 WAS 4th & 1 at the 65 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 72%

    (2:17) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 26-J.McNichols up the middle to WAS 37 for 2 yards (15-N.Bonitto).

  • Q4 WAS 4th & 6 at the 45 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 38%

    (:52) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass short middle to 86-Z.Ertz to DEN 37 for 8 yards (23-J.Barron).