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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Washington Commanders 4th & 9 at the 54

Washington Commanders 14 – Denver Broncos 20

What Actually Happened

(:55) 10-T.Way punts 40 yards to DEN 14, Center-45-Z.Triner, downed by WAS-18-T.Owens.

The Three Options

GO -0.81 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +2.96 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 54, worth -2.85 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.50 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 16, worth -0.50 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model