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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Denver Broncos 4th & 5 at the 15

Denver Broncos 0 – Washington Commanders 0

What Actually Happened

(10:31) 3-W.Lutz 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-16-J.Crawshaw.

The Three Options

GO +1.75 EP
Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.13 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 15, worth -0.77 EP
KICK +1.11 EP
What Happened
  • 95% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.25 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 25, worth -1.37 EP
PUNT -0.34 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.64 EP