Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 9 at the 70

Denver Broncos 20 – Washington Commanders 17

(10:19) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 43 yards to WAS 27, Center-48-M.Fraboni, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.52 EP

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +1.95 EP
60% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 70, worth -3.84 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model