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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Washington Commanders 4th & 8 at the 39

Washington Commanders 0 – Denver Broncos 3

What Actually Happened

(4:43) 10-T.Way punts 28 yards to DEN 11, Center-45-Z.Triner, fair catch by 19-M.Mims.

The Three Options

GO +0.31 EP
Model's Pick
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +4.06 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 39, worth -1.72 EP
KICK -0.06 EP
  • 55% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.96 EP
  • 45% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 48, worth -2.51 EP
PUNT +0.07 EP
What Happened
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth +0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model