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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 4 at the 65

Denver Broncos 20 – Washington Commanders 17

What Actually Happened

(3:09) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 50 yards to WAS 15, Center-48-M.Fraboni. 83-J.Lane to WAS 15 for no gain (34-J.Skinner).

The Three Options

GO -0.69 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +1.32 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 65, worth -2.96 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -0.71 EP
What Happened
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 23, worth -0.71 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model