4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 1 at the 45

Denver Broncos 3 – Washington Commanders 0

What Actually Happened

(11:05) 10-B.Nix pass short left to 82-A.Trautman pushed ob at WAS 23 for 22 yards (55-J.Martin).

The Three Options

GO +1.38 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +2.91 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 45, worth -2.60 EP
KICK -1.39 EP
  • 38% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.27 EP
  • 62% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 49, worth -3.03 EP
PUNT -0.66 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 12, worth -0.66 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model