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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 6 at the 45

Washington Commanders 17 – Denver Broncos 20

What Actually Happened

(:52) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass short middle to 86-Z.Ertz to DEN 37 for 8 yards (23-J.Barron).

The Three Options

GO +0.24 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +2.05 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 45, worth -0.99 EP
KICK +0.14 EP
  • 38% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.34 EP
  • 62% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 49, worth -1.22 EP
PUNT -0.11 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 12, worth -0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model