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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 7 at the 13

Cincinnati Bengals 0 – Baltimore Ravens 0

What Actually Happened

(9:42) 2-E.McPherson 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-W.Wagner, Holder-8-R.Rehkow.

The Three Options

GO +1.53 EP
Model's Pick
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +5.47 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 13, worth -0.52 EP
KICK +1.14 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.24 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 23, worth -1.16 EP
PUNT -0.34 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.39 EP