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Houston Texans

HC DeMeco Ryans
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Indianapolis Colts

HC Shane Steichen
Sunday 2025-11-30 · 13:00 Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis US 🏟 Dome Spread 3.0 O/U 44.5

Win Probability

HOU
40.8%
IND
59.2%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • IND offense: +0.163 EPA/play over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
  • HOU defense: -0.182 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
  • HOU offense: +0.028 EPA/play over its last 8 games (16th in the league)
  • Daniel Jones (IND): +0.133 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • HOU on 3 more days rest than IND

Predicted Final Score

HOU 23
–
IND 25
Projected margin: IND by 2 Projected total: 48

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 13

HOU

Jamal Hill LB Out Hamstring
Ajani Carter CB Out Hamstring

IND

Jaylon Carlies LB Out Ankle
Tyler Warren TE Questionable Illness

Pulled fresh for 2025 week 13 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

HOU 20
–
IND 16

Prediction missed by 6 pts on margin, 12 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 07:58 FG HOU (7:58) 15-K.Fairbairn 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-6-T.Townsend. HOU 3 – IND 0
  • Q2 08:46 TD IND (8:46) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass deep left to 14-A.Pierce for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 3 – IND 6
  • Q2 05:13 TD HOU (5:13) 57-B.Fisher reported in as eligible. 21-N.Chubb left end for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 9 – IND 6
  • Q3 06:52 FG HOU (6:52) 15-K.Fairbairn 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-6-T.Townsend. HOU 13 – IND 6
  • Q3 02:55 TD IND (2:55) 17-D.Jones pass short right to 84-T.Warren for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 13 – IND 12
  • Q4 12:44 TD HOU (12:44) (Shotgun) 12-N.Collins left end for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 19 – IND 13
  • Q4 08:44 FG IND (8:44) 12-M.Badgley 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez. HOU 20 – IND 16

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 IND 4th & 8 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (14:17) 8-R.Sanchez punts 45 yards to HOU 18, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 14-J.Noel pushed ob at HOU 32 for 14 yards (59-B.Johnson).

  • Q1 HOU 4th & 4 at the 4
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.96 EP
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 98%

    (7:58) 15-K.Fairbairn 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-6-T.Townsend.

  • Q1 IND 4th & 10 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (5:48) 8-R.Sanchez punts 55 yards to HOU 18, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 14-J.Noel to HOU 32 for 14 yards (58-A.Ajiake; 85-A.Ogletree).

  • Q1 HOU 4th & 4 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50%

    (2:57) 6-T.Townsend punts 44 yards to IND 18, Center-40-A.Brinkman. 6-A.Gould to IND 23 for 5 yards (37-A.Speed).

  • Q1 IND 4th & 7 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (:43) 8-R.Sanchez punts 42 yards to HOU 17, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 14-J.Noel.

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 7 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (14:22) 6-T.Townsend punts 52 yards to IND 28, Center-40-A.Brinkman. 6-A.Gould pushed ob at IND 37 for 9 yards (87-C.Stover).

  • Q2 IND 4th & 1 at the 9
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 67% p(FG) 98%

    (10:19) Direct snap to 84-T.Warren. 84-T.Warren FUMBLES (Aborted) at HOU 10, recovered by IND-28-J.Taylor at HOU 11. 28-J.Taylor to HOU 11 for no gain (95-D.Barnett, 4-K.Lassiter).

  • Q2 IND 4th & 15 at the 47
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 44%

    (2:00) 8-R.Sanchez punts 47 yards to end zone, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Touchback.

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 2 at the 47
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.77 EP
    p(convert) 60% p(FG) 44%

    (:02) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass incomplete deep right (14-A.Pierce).

  • Q4 IND 4th & 7 at the 24
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 89%

    (8:44) 12-M.Badgley 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 1 at the 17 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 67% p(FG) 95%

    (4:53) 57-B.Fisher reported in as eligible. Direct snap to 87-C.Stover. 87-C.Stover left guard to IND 17 for no gain (44-Z.Franklin; 92-N.Gallimore). (Virtual Measurement).

  • Q4 IND 4th & 9 at the 31 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.88 EP
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 80%

    (1:49) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass incomplete short right to 11-M.Pittman [51-W.Anderson].