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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 7 at the 59

Indianapolis Colts 0 – Houston Texans 3

What Actually Happened

(:43) 8-R.Sanchez punts 42 yards to HOU 17, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 14-J.Noel.

The Three Options

GO -0.33 EP
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +3.02 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 59, worth -2.65 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.03 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 18, worth -0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model