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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Houston Texans 4th & 4 at the 4

Houston Texans 0 – Indianapolis Colts 0

What Actually Happened

(7:58) 15-K.Fairbairn 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-6-T.Townsend.

The Three Options

GO +2.07 EP
Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.10 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 4, worth -0.21 EP
KICK +1.11 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 21-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.15 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 21, worth -1.13 EP
PUNT -0.49 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth -0.49 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.96 EP