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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 1 at the 17

Houston Texans 20 – Indianapolis Colts 16

What Actually Happened

(4:53) 57-B.Fisher reported in as eligible. Direct snap to 87-C.Stover. 87-C.Stover left guard to IND 17 for no gain (44-Z.Franklin; 92-N.Gallimore). (Virtual Measurement).

The Three Options

GO +3.00 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +4.69 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 17, worth -0.47 EP
KICK +1.72 EP
  • 95% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.87 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 27, worth -0.90 EP
PUNT -0.24 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth -0.24 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model