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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 8 at the 63

Indianapolis Colts 0 – Houston Texans 0

What Actually Happened

(14:17) 8-R.Sanchez punts 45 yards to HOU 18, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 14-J.Noel pushed ob at HOU 32 for 14 yards (59-B.Johnson).

The Three Options

GO -0.98 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.91 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 63, worth -3.50 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -0.46 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 21, worth -0.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model