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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 5 at the 5

New England Patriots 30 – New York Giants 15

What Actually Happened

(2:17) 36-A.Borregales 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Ashby, Holder-17-B.Baringer.

The Three Options

GO +1.74 EP
Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.18 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 5, worth -0.83 EP
KICK +1.18 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 22-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.22 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 21, worth -1.20 EP
PUNT -0.81 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth -0.81 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.56 EP