Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 5 at the 53

Minnesota Vikings 0 – Seattle Seahawks 3

(5:33) 17-R.Wright punts 31 yards to SEA 22, Center-42-A.DePaola, fair catch by 22-R.Shaheed.

The Three Options

GO -0.67 EP

42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.72 EP
58% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 53, worth -3.11 EP

KICK -1.67 EP

28% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.42 EP
72% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 49, worth -2.90 EP

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model