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Minnesota Vikings

HC Kevin O'Connell
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Seattle Seahawks

HC Mike Macdonald
Sunday 2025-11-30 · 16:05 Lumen Field, Seattle US ☀️ Clear Spread 12.5 O/U 42.5

Win Probability

MIN
12.7%
SEA
87.3%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • QB edge to SEA: Sam Darnold (SEA) +0.124 vs Max Brosmer (MIN) -0.684 EPA/dropback (MIN starting Max Brosmer in place of J.J. McCarthy)
  • MIN offense: -0.117 EPA/play over its last 8 games (27th in the league)
  • SEA offense: +0.114 EPA/play over its last 8 games (6th in the league)
  • SEA defense: -0.072 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (7th in the league)
  • MIN defense: +0.079 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (25th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

MIN 16
–
SEA 29
Projected margin: SEA by 13 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 13

MIN

J.J. McCarthy QB Out Concussion
Donovan Jackson G Out Ankle
Jonathan Greenard LB Questionable Shoulder
Josh Metellus S Questionable Knee
Christian Darrisaw T Questionable Knee
Theo Jackson S Questionable Neck
Jalen Redmond DT Questionable Hip

SEA

George Holani RB Out Hamstring
Rylie Mills DE Out Knee
Ty Okada S Questionable Oblique

Pulled fresh for 2025 week 13 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

MIN 0
–
SEA 26

Prediction missed by 13 pts on margin, 19 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q2 07:12 FG SEA (7:12) 5-J.Myers 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson. MIN 0 – SEA 3
  • Q2 03:14 TD SEA (3:14) 12-M.Brosmer pass short right INTERCEPTED by 13-E.Jones [0-D.Lawrence] at SEA 15. 13-E.Jones for 85 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 0 – SEA 9
  • Q2 00:12 FG SEA (:12) 5-J.Myers 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson. MIN 0 – SEA 13
  • Q3 11:19 FG SEA (11:19) 5-J.Myers 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson. MIN 0 – SEA 16
  • Q3 03:19 FG SEA (3:19) 5-J.Myers 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson. MIN 0 – SEA 19
  • Q4 09:17 TD SEA (9:17) 26-Z.Charbonnet left tackle for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 0 – SEA 25

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 MIN 4th & 12 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (11:18) 17-R.Wright punts 56 yards to SEA 4, Center-42-A.DePaola, fair catch by 22-R.Shaheed.

  • Q1 MIN 4th & 2 at the 66
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.58 EP
    p(convert) 59%

    (3:38) 17-R.Wright punts 60 yards to SEA 6, Center-42-A.DePaola. 22-R.Shaheed to SEA 14 for 8 yards (13-T.Felton; 98-B.Richter).

  • Q1 SEA 4th & 9 at the 85
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (2:36) 4-M.Dickson punts 48 yards to MIN 37, Center-41-C.Stoll, fair catch by 4-M.Price. PENALTY on MIN-98-B.Richter, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at MIN 37.

  • Q1 MIN 4th & 8 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (1:36) 17-R.Wright punts 55 yards to SEA 16, Center-42-A.DePaola. 22-R.Shaheed pushed ob at SEA 32 for 16 yards (56-A.Keys).

  • Q2 SEA 4th & 15 at the 15
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 95%

    (7:12) 5-J.Myers 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

  • Q2 MIN 4th & 5 at the 53
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 28%

    (5:33) 17-R.Wright punts 31 yards to SEA 22, Center-42-A.DePaola, fair catch by 22-R.Shaheed.

  • Q2 MIN 4th & 1 at the 4
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 62% p(FG) 98%

    (3:14) 12-M.Brosmer pass short right INTERCEPTED by 13-E.Jones [0-D.Lawrence] at SEA 15. 13-E.Jones for 85 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q2 MIN 4th & 18 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (1:12) 17-R.Wright punts 50 yards to SEA 26, Center-42-A.DePaola. 22-R.Shaheed pushed ob at SEA 45 for 19 yards (98-B.Richter).

  • Q2 SEA 4th & 3 at the 38
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 55% p(FG) 65%

    (:12) 5-J.Myers 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

  • Q3 SEA 4th & 1 at the 36
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.75 EP
    p(convert) 72% p(FG) 70%

    (11:19) 5-J.Myers 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

  • Q3 SEA 4th & 9 at the 21
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 92%

    (3:19) 5-J.Myers 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

  • Q4 SEA 4th & 5 at the 53
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.42 EP
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 28%

    (13:34) 4-M.Dickson punts 53 yards to end zone, Center-41-C.Stoll, Touchback.

  • Q4 SEA 4th & 1 at the 23
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 70% p(FG) 90%

    (10:40) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short left to 88-A.Barner to MIN 21 for 2 yards (7-B.Murphy).

  • Q4 MIN 4th & 13 at the 40 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.40 EP
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 61%

    (3:15) (Shotgun) 12-M.Brosmer sacked at SEA 47 for -7 yards (sack split by 42-D.Thomas and 7-U.Nwosu).

  • Q4 SEA 4th & 4 at the 47 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.67 EP
    p(convert) 51% p(FG) 43%

    (1:00) 4-M.Dickson punts 45 yards to MIN 2, impetus ends at MIN 1, Center-41-C.Stoll, downed by SEA-32-V.Jones.