Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 9 at the 85

Seattle Seahawks 0 – Minnesota Vikings 0

What Actually Happened

(2:36) 4-M.Dickson punts 48 yards to MIN 37, Center-41-C.Stoll, fair catch by 4-M.Price. PENALTY on MIN-98-B.Richter, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at MIN 37.

The Three Options

GO -2.28 EP

42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 76, worth +1.18 EP
58% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 85, worth -4.81 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model