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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 15 at the 15

Seattle Seahawks 0 – Minnesota Vikings 0

What Actually Happened

(7:12) 5-J.Myers 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

The Three Options

GO +0.96 EP
  • 26% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.51 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 15, worth -0.66 EP
KICK +1.42 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.55 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 25, worth -1.24 EP
PUNT -0.37 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model