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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 2 at the 66

Minnesota Vikings 0 – Seattle Seahawks 0

What Actually Happened

(3:38) 17-R.Wright punts 60 yards to SEA 6, Center-42-A.DePaola. 22-R.Shaheed to SEA 14 for 8 yards (13-T.Felton; 98-B.Richter).

The Three Options

GO -0.60 EP
Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +1.62 EP
  • 41% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 66, worth -3.81 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -1.18 EP
What Happened
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 24, worth -1.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.58 EP