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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 18 at the 76

Minnesota Vikings 0 – Seattle Seahawks 10

What Actually Happened

(1:12) 17-R.Wright punts 50 yards to SEA 26, Center-42-A.DePaola. 22-R.Shaheed pushed ob at SEA 45 for 19 yards (98-B.Richter).

The Three Options

GO -2.73 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +1.75 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 76, worth -4.27 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

PUNT -1.34 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 34, worth -1.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model