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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 4 at the 47

Seattle Seahawks 26 – Minnesota Vikings 0

What Actually Happened

(1:00) 4-M.Dickson punts 45 yards to MIN 2, impetus ends at MIN 1, Center-41-C.Stoll, downed by SEA-32-V.Jones.

The Three Options

GO +0.48 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +2.17 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 47, worth -1.28 EP
KICK +0.22 EP
  • 43% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.27 EP
  • 57% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 49, worth -1.30 EP
PUNT -0.20 EP
What Happened
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 13, worth -0.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.67 EP