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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 1 at the 36

Seattle Seahawks 13 – Minnesota Vikings 0

What Actually Happened

(11:19) 5-J.Myers 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

The Three Options

GO +2.20 EP
Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.80 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 36, worth -1.81 EP
KICK +0.45 EP
What Happened
  • 70% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.74 EP
  • 30% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 46, worth -2.56 EP
PUNT +0.07 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth +0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.75 EP